Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.031536 0.035917 0.040713 0.046358 0.052825 0.060010 0.068606
2025-01-19 0.023499 0.029138 0.035877 0.044540 0.055412 0.068641 0.086018
2025-01-26 0.020515 0.026945 0.035097 0.046232 0.061108 0.080387 0.107412
2025-02-02 0.018428 0.025366 0.034601 0.047858 0.066508 0.091974 0.129664
2025-02-09 0.016825 0.024117 0.034238 0.049408 0.071733 0.103645 0.153183
2025-02-16 0.015005 0.022285 0.032769 0.049091 0.074089 0.111300 0.171573
2025-02-23 0.013664 0.020962 0.031831 0.049352 0.077189 0.120204 0.192680
2025-03-02 0.012319 0.019462 0.030433 0.048691 0.078688 0.126665 0.210491
2025-03-09 0.011525 0.018725 0.030111 0.049645 0.082789 0.137578 0.236717
2025-03-16 0.010538 0.017567 0.028985 0.049131 0.084343 0.144358 0.256539
2025-03-23 0.010062 0.017201 0.029106 0.050697 0.089556 0.157815 0.289582
2025-03-30 0.009088 0.015887 0.027497 0.049078 0.088952 0.160925 0.303953
2025-04-06 0.008331 0.014900 0.026388 0.048288 0.089851 0.166988 0.324927
2025-04-13 0.007489 0.013687 0.024771 0.046412 0.088543 0.168829 0.337958
2025-04-20 0.007249 0.013549 0.025085 0.048177 0.094349 0.184817 0.381199
2025-04-27 0.007016 0.013400 0.025357 0.049874 0.100179 0.201437 0.427734
2025-05-04 0.006789 0.013237 0.025583 0.051493 0.106000 0.218620 0.477544
2025-05-11 0.006355 0.012629 0.024885 0.051162 0.107727 0.227451 0.510014
2025-05-18 0.006024 0.012198 0.024500 0.051434 0.110749 0.239325 0.550777
2025-05-25 0.005624 0.011590 0.023699 0.050744 0.111593 0.246502 0.581448
2025-06-01 0.005418 0.011369 0.023679 0.051740 0.116285 0.262756 0.635792
2025-06-08 0.005089 0.010856 0.022999 0.051204 0.117422 0.270969 0.671401
2025-06-15 0.004969 0.010788 0.023268 0.052839 0.123777 0.292066 0.742103